Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys to the White House

“The Keys to the White House” is a forecasting model developed by historian Allan Lichtman. It predicts the outcomes of U.S. presidential elections based on thirteen true/false statements, or "keys," which assess the performance and strength of the incumbent party. These keys include various factors of the current administration and the challenger as well as social and international issues. When eight or more keys are true, the incumbent party is predicted to win. Lichtman's model, which eschews polls and traditional political analysis, has accurately predicted the popular vote winner of every election since 1984. The model’s emphasis is on the overall stability and effectiveness of the sitting administration rather than the day-to-day fluctuations of the campaign trail.

Critics of Allan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" model argue that its reliance on historical patterns and broad indicators may overlook the nuances of modern electoral dynamics. Some contend that the model's binary true/false format, which does not assign individual weights to the keys, oversimplifies complex political and social phenomena, potentially leading to misinterpretation. Further, the model's success in predicting the popular vote does not always correlate with the Electoral College outcome, which ultimately decides the presidency. Additionally, the model may not adequately account for unprecedented events or shifts in voter behavior influenced by rapidly evolving media and technology landscapes. Although the model has a strong track record, it is not infallible and should be considered alongside other predictive tools involving election outcomes.

The 13 Keys

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. 
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. 
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. 
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. 
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. 
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. 
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. 
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. 
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. 
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. 
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
    
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. 
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. 

The 13 keys are simple to use: if 8 or more of the 13 keys are true for the incumbent party, its candidate will win the election—but if fewer than 8 are true, the challenger will win.

2024 Election

Current prediction:

Harris wins!