Alex Ovechkin's path to #1

A new goal standard

When Wayne Gretzky, “the Great One”, retired from hockey in 1999, many assumed that his goal record of 894 would last forever. But over the past few years, the countdown has been on for when Alexander Ovechkin, better known as Ovi, might surpass him. On April 6th he did just that, ripping a shot through traffic past right New York Islanders goaltender Ilya Sorokin. It was his 895th goal. As was only fitting, he had fired the shot from the spot on the ice that has come to be known as “Ovi’s office”—the area in and around the left faceoff circle.

Ovechkin’s proficiency is remarkable for two reasons. The first is his remarkable longevity. As shown in the chart above, a tracker of cumulative goals scored, Wayne Gretzky was far more effective at putting pucks in the net early in his career. Through age 29 Gretzky outperformed Ovi by a wide margin. No NHL player had ever scored more goals than Gretzky at 19, or 20, or—well, at 21, Gretzky scored more goals than anyone else has scored in a single season at any age. He was on pace to become hockey’s most prolific career scorer from the second he set foot on the ice.

In his 30s, though, Mr. Gretzky was scoring just a bit better than the league average. Other prolific goal scorers tend to experience similar declines, with their production dropping off as they advance along the aging curve.

Not Ovi. He was on track to be one of the greatest goal scorers ever, certainly. But the greatest of all time? No way. Why would anyone have expected him to overtake Gretzky? Even as his skating has slowed, he still has a stunning ability to read the play, find openings and fire off exquisitely placed shots.

No one should have, but on Sunday, he did. Back in 2006, in just his second year in the NHL, he explained to reporters after a potential injury that he was fine, saying “Russian machine never breaks”.
That sums up his playing style pretty well.

Ovechkin's scoring has remained remarkably consistent, while Gretzky faded with age

The other thing to note out about Ovi’s scoring is the context of the NHL. Gretzky’s record had been expected to last partly because of all the changes to the sport of ice hockey since he played. Bigger goaltenders, tougher checking and more suffocating defensive systems have yielded fewer scoring opportunities. But that hasn't slowed Ovi (see chart 2).

Gretzky’s most impressive record—total points, which combines goals and assists—faces no threat whatsoever from Ovechkin. Mr. Gretzky had 2,857 career points. Mr. Ovechkin currently has 1,619. With a good chance that next season will be his last in the NHL, Ovi will probably finish his career with around 40% fewer points than Gretzky.