Black Sea Fleet Losses during the Russo-Ukrainian War

Data: RAND organization

When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he set off the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II. At the start of the war Russia had more than 70 ships and boasted that their navy was “invincible”. Ukraine, however, has shown surprising naval capability in the Black Sea, helping to protect its shores and shipping lanes while keeping the Russian navy at bay.

This is remarkable because Ukraine has virtually no warships or navy of their own. Ukraine has succeeded through the skillful use of emerging technologies, such as explosive-laden uncrewed surface vessels, and older tactics, such as land-based missiles (Harpoon and Neptune especially) and naval mines.

Timeline

  • Invasion begins

    Russian Navy captures the strategic Snake Island. The SLAVA Class cruiser Moskva plays a prominent role. Reputedly, the Ukrainian garrison on the island replies to suggestions of surrender with “Russian Warship, go fuck yourself”.

    A person holding a protest sign with the Ukrainian flag colors, blue and yellow. The sign reads, Russian warship go fuck yourself! with a large number 13 partially obscuring the text.
  • Majority of Ukrainian Navy warships are captured, sunk or scuttled at the onset of the invasion. Notably, the scuttled vessels include the frigate Hetman Sahaidachny. Ukraine, whose fleet was massively out-gunned, is left with only a few smaller vessels.

  • Russian Navy warships bombard Ukrainian coastline off Odesa.

  • Reports that Ukraine hit and sunk a Russian patrol ship, Vasily Bykov, with rocket fire off Odesa. These reports subsequently shown to be incorrect, the first of several ‘wishful sinkings’.

  • Russia starts removing the hull numbers from its warships in the Black Sea to frustrate attempts to gather intelligence on movements.

    Subsequent reports that the Russian frigate Admiral Essen was hit by a Neptune missile off Odesa. There were several 'wishful sinkings' at the time, however indications are that this occurred. Missile did not hit cleanly, limited damage.

  • Russian Raptor class assault boat hit by Ukrainian anti-tank missile near Mariupol.

    A large military ship with antennas and radar equipment navigates through the sea in overcast weather. The vessel appears tilted, and the photo has a blue tint.
  • Russian Navy Alligator class landing ship Saratov hit while unloading at Berdyansk on Sea of Azov. Possibly hit by a Ukrainian ballistic missile. The ship explodes, damaging two Ropucha class landing ships which manage to escape. The ship sinks at the quay. Russia stops using the port for reinforcements.

  • Reported in Naval News that SLAVA class cruiser Moskva is operating predictably. Precursor of things to come.

  • The SLAVA class cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet and most powerful warship in the area, is hit by two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles. It sinks the next day.

    Infographic showing the observed damage to Russian Navy Cruiser Moskva. Features labeled images and diagrams of the ship with details of missile impacts and weapon placements. Flags of Ukraine and Russia are displayed.
  • Post Moskva sinking

    Fighting intensifies around Snake Island. Ukrainian TB2 drones play a major role, hitting two Raptor assault boats and sinking a landing craft at the jetty. Russian attempts to reinforce and supply it begin to appear more precarious. On at least one occasion Ukraine deploys a BM-27 Uragan MLRS on a barge to bombard the island.

    Illustration of a Bayraktar TB2 drone labeled Ghost of Snake Island with a lion graphic. The background shows a grayscale image of Snake Island with annotations referencing military vehicles from May 7-8.
  • Harpoon and Brimstone missiles supplied to Ukraine. These threaten Russian Navy warships.
    Smaller Russian warships, including gunboats, involved in capture of Mariupol.

  • Ukrainian Navy landing ship Yuri Olefirenko attacked by Russian rockets near Ochakiv. The ship, the largest remaining in the Ukrainian Navy, survives.

  • Russian ship Vasiliy Bekh, carrying a SA-15 GAUNTLET (Tor) air-defense missile system, is sunk by Harpoon or Neptune missiles. Ukrainian officials claim that the ship was hit twice by Harpoon anti-ship missiles, which would represent the first successful combat use of the weapon in Ukrainian hands.

    A split image shows two contrasting scenes: on the left, a blurry, grayscale footage of an explosion; on the right, a clear, color photo of a rescue ship in a harbor, surrounded by water under a blue sky, decorated with signal flags.
  • Ukraine attacks Russian controlled gas platforms in mid-Black Sea with Harpoon or Neptune missiles (Reuters).

  • Two target barges, normally resident in the Russian naval base at Novorossiysk, were towed to Kerch. They are positioned as decoys to protect the bridge from attack.

  • Russia abandons Snake Island. Threatened by Harpoon and Neptune missiles, Russian ships largely withdraw from western side of northern Black Sea. This is a significant change in the balance of the war.

  • Ukrainian forces briefly land on Snake Island. Special Forces from 73rd Naval Special Purpose Center used underwater vehicles in this mission.

  • Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) signed, effectively breaking the blockage of Odesa. (United Nations).

  • Ukraine takes the fight to Crimea

    Ukrainian uncrewed air vehicle (UAV) attacks Russian Navy headquarters in Sevastopol. Russia cancels planned Navy Day events in the port.

  • Commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet (BSF), Admiral Igor Osipov, is removed from his post. His deputy, Viktor Sokolov, takes command.

  • Follow-up Ukrainian uncrewed air vehicle (UAV) attack Russian Navy headquarters in Sevastopol.

  • SLAVA Class cruiser Marshall Ustinov leaves Mediterranean, to return to Northern Fleet home. This leaves the Russian Navy weaker in the Mediterranean.

  • Russian nuclear powered submarine, likely Severodvinsk, reported in Mediterranean. Seen as part of the outer defense for the Black Sea operations. Nuclear submarines are the most powerful, and most survivable, assets in the Russian Navy.

  • Romanian Navy Musca-class minesweeper, Lieutenant Dimitrie Nicolescu (29), damaged by a floating mine off Romanian coast. Romanian forces have neutralized several floating mines believed to have broken free from their moorings further north. Attribution unclear.

  • Ukrainian explosive Uncrewed surface vessel (USV) washes up on beach outside Sevastopol. These are popularly called 'maritime drones'. Russian forces destroy it but otherwise do not appear to react to new threat.

  • Nord Stream 1 & 2 pipelines sabotaged in the Baltic.

    The attack on the pipeline was one of the most dramatic and consequential acts of sabotage in modern times. It was also an unprecedented attack on a major element of global infrastructure— the network of cables, pipes, and satellites that underpin commerce and communication. It effectively destroyed a project that had required decades of strenuous labor and political muscle and had cost roughly $20 billion, with half of that money coming from Gazprom, the other half from European energy companies. The attack was a financial blow to Russia and upended the EU’s energy planning and policy.

    Aerial view of a large swirling disturbance in a body of water, creating a circular pattern of white frothy waves spreading outward, contrasting with the surrounding dark blue water.
    The aftermath of the underwater explosion that breached Nord Stream 2, as seen from a Danish airplane near the island of Bornholm (Danish Defense Command / Forsvaret Ritzau Scanpix / Reuters)
  • Major combined Ukrainian maritime drone (USV) and UAV attack on Sevastopol. Several USVs penetrate the harbor and two warships, the minesweeper Ivan Golubets and frigate Admiral Makarov, are hit. Neither ship is sunk. However Russia withdraws fleet into bases and starts initiating increased defenses.

    Artist's impression of maritime drones attacking Sevastopol. H I Sutton.
  • Reports that Russia is attempting to reactivate legacy naval base at Balaklava, south of Sevastopol.

  • Ukrainian USV attacks Novorossiysk. No significant damage but attack demonstrates range of vessels.

  • Small Russian naval base at Feodosiya becomes more important with Kalibr armed Buyan-M corvettes using it.
    Russia sows naval mines in Dnieper River near Kherson, seemingly to defend against Ukrainian river crossings.

  • Russian warships and submarines based at Novorossiysk temporarily evacuated in face of perceived Ukrainian threat. Vessels return.

    Infographic showing the Russian Navy Cruiser Moskva with observed damage. Includes labeled images with parts of the ship, like the main area of fire, deck details, and weapon systems. Smoke is visible in pictures of the burning ship.
  • SpaceX, and its founder Elon Musk, say that they will stop Ukraine using their StarLink satellite communications system for long range drones. This may have prevented Ukraine using its explosive USVs near Crimea until an alternative can be found. Russian Navy increases activity of Crimea.

  • Russia deploys its own explosive USVs, with one targeting the bridge at Zatoka, south of Odesa.

    Russian maritime drone attacks bridge at Zatoka
  • Ukrainian UAV attack on oil facilities at port of Tuapse, north of Sochi. This is notable for its distance from Ukrainian controlled territory and strategic relevance. Russia deploys air defenses there, observed Mar 6.

  • Ukrainian maritime drones (USVs) and aerial drones (UAVs) attack Sevastopol. Local reports suggest 3 USVs were destroyed. Video evidence suggests that at least one penetrated deep inside the protected harbor.
    Ukrainian forces reveal new model of a maritime drone (USV).

    Illustration shows two Ukrainian maritime drones. The top drone is labeled October 2022, featuring a sleek, dark design. The bottom drone, labeled March 2023, has a gray exterior with monobank on the side.

    Ukraine’s first USV attack on the Sevastopol Naval Base was a real shock for the Russian Black Sea Fleet, perhaps one of two major naval incidents in the Russo-Ukrainian war. The Russian fleet was criticized by many analysts after the assault due to the lack of countermeasures in its most significant naval base in the Black Sea. On the other side, this attack was considered a breakthrough in naval warfare, standing as the first large-scale suicide naval drone attack in naval history.

  • Russian forces remove privately owned boats in the occupied town of Heniches'k, Kherson Oblast, on the Sea of Azov. Unclear why.

  • Ukraine reveals 'Toloka' family of uncrewed underwater vehicles. Production status unclear.

  • Russian intelligence ship Ivan Khurs attacked by three Ukrainian maritime drones, in vicinity 41.883333°, 30.603611°. One almost makes contact but attack unsuccessful. Ship returns to Sevastopol.

    A large naval ship with multiple antennas and equipment on deck sails through choppy waters under a cloudy sky. The image has a watermark at the bottom.
  • Russia increases dolphin pens in Sevastopol Harbor.

  • Reports from Russian sources claiming that the Black Sea Fleet Vishnya class Intelligence Ship Priazovye, was attacked by several (possibly 6) maritime drones (USVs) in Southeast Black Sea. Later located to vicinity 43.064437°, 36.813334°. All USVs reported destroyed. Interestingly, they report that she was on duty "defending of TurkStream gas pipeline" 300km south-east of Sevastopol. Her claimed reason for being there may be significant and should not be taken at face value.

  • Summer counter offensive

    Russian Sevastopol-designed 'Sargan' USV, which is similar to Ukraine's 'maritime drones', displayed at St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).

  • Russian Navy applies deceptive camouflage to warships in Black Sea.

  • Two (2) Ropucha class landing ships used in a civilian role ferrying civilian traffic across the Kerch Strait. Continues after Kerch Bridge attack on July 17.

  • Ukrainian USVs attack Sevastopol. Reportedly none penetrated the harbor. Modified jet skis used. According to Mikhail Razvozhayev's Telegram channel, 2 were destroyed and another stopped by EW. 5 UAVs also employed. One Ukrainian USV known to have been in vicinity 43.060278°, 36.766944°.

  • Ukrainian USVs attack Kerch Bridge. Both spans of the road bridge seriously damaged.

    A military-style boat labeled SeaBaby SBH 13 speeds through choppy waters with a camouflage net on its deck. Waves splash up around the vessel against a backdrop of dark ocean water and a clear sky.
    Ukrainian SBU Sea Baby USV of the type involved in the Kerch Bridge attack.
  • Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) expires without renewal when Russia withdraws. Was expected.
    Repeated Russian missile and OWA-UAV attacks on Odesa and other Ukrainian controlled ports. High number of KITCHEN and STOOGE missiles noteworthy. Russia also suspected of sowing sea mines near shipping lanes to/from Odesa.

  • Post-Black Sea Grain Initiative

    Reportedly, Russian Navy Project 22160 patrol ship 'Sergey Kotov' is attacked by two Ukrainian USVs. Attack unsuccessful. Subsequently on July 26 the UK MoD update noted that the ship had been deployed to the southern Black Sea, patrolling the shipping lane between the Bosphorus and Odesa.

  • Russian MoD prohibits small boats (pleasure boats, sailboats, inflatable boats, jet skis, wind surfers etc) from transiting Kerch Strait.

  • Russian MoD reports two patrol ships, Sergey Kotov & Vasily Bykov, tasked with "controlling navigation" 183 nm SW of Sevastopol, were attacked. Location later determined to be in the vicinity of 42.117219°, 31.229180°. 3 USVs used. Meanwhile grain ships sailing to Odesa without apparent interruption.

  • Ukrainian USV destroyed by gunfire from Russian HIP helicopter, vicinity 43.060278°, 36.766944°. Possibly part of next day's attack on Novorossiysk.

    Black and white image of a large military ship at night with bright lights on the deck. The ship is seen from the perspective of a small boat moving toward it, with reflections visible on the waters surface.
    Ukrainian maritime drone (USV) lines up an attack on the Russian Navy Ropucha Class landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak, night of August 3-4. The attack inflicted major damage.
  • Russian Navy Ropucha Class landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak struck by Ukrainian maritime drone (USV) outside Novorossiysk. Significant damage. Towed to Novorossiysk.

  • Russian oil products tanker 'Sig' hit by Ukrainian maritime drone (USV) south of Kerch Bridge. Ship significantly damaged.

  • Russian Patrol Ship Vasily Bykov stopped and boarded the Palau flagged Sukru Okan General Cargo ship in Southern Black Sea as it sailed towards Ukraine. This is the first reported boarding following the termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI).

  • Floating sea mines wash up at Costinești, near Constanța in Romania. One explodes on pier. Possibly laid by Russia in July.

  • Videos of prototypes of AMMO Ukraine's 'Marichka' AUV revealed.

  • Ukrainian USV attack on Russian arms transport Sparta-IV, escorted by Navy Pr.1135M KRIVAK-II Class frigate Pytlivyy and Pr.22160 Bykov Class patrol ship Vasily Bykov in eastern Black sea. Sparta-IV was returning from a voyage to Tartus in Syria, likely carrying military equipment. Attack unsuccessful.

  • Engagements near Snake Island. Russian MoD publishes footage of a Ukrainian Willard Sea Force RHIB being attacked from an Su-30SM FLANKER-C.

  • Cross-beach commando raid by Ukrainian Special Forces on Cape Tarkhankut, western Crimea. The attack was preceded on August 23 by a strike on the S-400 air defense system there, reportedly including a Neptune missile and elements launched from the sea.

  • Russia begins placing barriers to protect the portion of the Kerch Bridge which was attacked on July 17. Barges sunk on western approach. Bridge repairs continue.
    Dolphin pens appear at the Southern Naval Base at Novoozerne, Crimea (NPR).

    Aerial view of a long, narrow pier extending into dark blue water. Near the end of the pier, two small structures float. A curved line of orange buoys arcs in the water, creating a boundary. A tiny boat is seen in the top right corner.
  • Russian social media Reports that a Ukrainian USV (and possibly UAV) on Kerch Bridge was thwarted. The Pr.1135M KRIVAK-II Class frigate Pytlivyy may have been targeted, or otherwise involved. Unconfirmed.
    Ukraine lands on and reclaims 'Boyko Towers' gas rigs/platforms in Black Sea.

  • Ukrainian strike on Sevastopol, reportedly with Storm Shadow / SCALP-EG cruise missiles. Pr.775 Ropucha class landing ship Minsk and Pr.636.3 Improved KILO Class submarine Rostov-on-Don (B-237) seriously damaged in dry dock.

    A damaged submarine with significant visible destruction, particularly on the conning tower, is shown in side-by-side images. The surface is charred and debris is scattered around. Part of the images are pixelated.
  • Ukrainian USV attacks target Russian tanker Yaz and weapons transport Ursa Major in Black Sea. Russian MoD states that 11 USVs were destroyed, 3 by Pr.22160 Bykov Class patrol ship Vasily Bykov, 3 by naval aviation (likely helicopters) and 5 by Pr.22160 Bykov Class patrol ship Sergey Kotov.
    USV attack on Pr.1239 Bora Class missile corvette Samum, reportedly with experimental 'semi-submersible' USVs (x2).

  • Increased Ukrainian missile and OWA-UAV (one way attack aerial drones) attacks on Black Sea Fleet targets, including major facilities in Sevastopol on Sep 20 and the main HQ building on Sep 22.

  • Togo-flagged merchant ship 'Seama' hit by floating mine in Danube anchorage, 12 miles offshore from Sulina area of Romania.
    Ukrainian cruise missile strike on Black Sea Fleet installations near Sevastopol.

  • Ukrainian Storm Shadow missiles strike Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol.

  • Russian Navy submarine operations moved almost entirely to Novorossiysk. After missile strikes few high-value warships visit Sevastopol and stay only for short periods.
    Turkish flagged general cargo ship 'Kafkametler' hit a sea mine while waiting outside the entrance to the Sulina Canal, Romania.

  • Attack on Balticconnector gas pipeline and nearby submarine communication cable (SCC) in Gulf of Finland. Attribution to be confirmed.

  • Ukrainian maritime drones, likely USVs, attack Russian warships outside Sevastopol. Buyan-M corvette reportedly damaged with sources on both sides but no official confirmations.

  • Liberian flagged tanker 'Ali Najafov' coming from Georgia, struck a mine in the region near Bystroe Canal.

  • Russian MoD reports that at about 4 o'clock Moscow time, in the northern part of the Black Sea, 3 unmanned boats of the Ukrainian Navy were detected. Russian forces responded, results unclear.

  • Ukraine reports that Russian naval aircraft laid 'explosive devices' in shipping lane to/from Odesa.

  • Russian Pr.23040G minesweeper 'Vladimir Kozitsky' destroyed by explosion in Sevastopol Bay. Subsequently attributed to a Ukrainian SBU 'Sea Baby' USV.

    Diagram illustrating an explosive uncrewed surface vessel (USV) attack on a Russian Navy frigate near Sevastopol, Crimea. Labels highlight the USVs features and attack points, including a jet ski propulsion and camera for video footage. Date: October 27, 2022.
  • Russian Pr.22800 Karakurt class corvette struck by Ukrainian missiles at shipyard in Kerch.

  • Liberian flagged merchant ship KMAX Ruler hit by Russian anti-radiation missile in port of Odesa.
    Ukrainian maritime drones (USVs) operated by GUR hit two Russian Navy landing craft in Chornomors'ke, northern Crimea. 1 x Pr.11770 Serna Class and 1 x Pr.1176 Ondatra Class.

  • Liberian flagged Merchant ship 'Georgia S' struck by floating mine in Northwestern Black Sea.

  • Ukrainian GUR Magura-5 USV washes up on a beach on the Western side of Crimea. On November 25 Russia releases video footage of Su-30SM FLANKER aircraft strafing a small boat or USV off Crimea.

  • Powerful storm batters the region, particularly affecting Crimea. Harbor defenses at Sevastopol and barriers at Kerch damaged. Dolphins pens at Sevastopol harbor apparently destroyed, later replaced. Reports of one boat, possibly a Raptor assault boat, sunk.

  • Russian SU-24M FENCER-D strike aircraft shot down over Black Sea near Snake Island, reportedly by a Ukrainian air defense missile (possibly Patriot). This is the first time Ukraine has had the reach to achieve this.

  • Russian company KMZ reveals its Dandelion USV, which reportedly will be deployed in combat in the Black Sea. The vehicle appears similar to Ukrainian types.
    Russian Navy adds new boom defenses added to Southern Navy Base in Novoozerne, Crimea.

  • Ukraine's SBU reveal the 'Kozak Mamai' USV previously used in the attacks on the Ropucha Class landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak and tanker Sig.

  • Ukraine hits Russian Ropucha Class landing ship Novocherkassk in the port of Feodosia, Crimea. Ship caught fire, seriously damaged likely write-off. Initial evidence suggests that she sunk at the pier.

    Novocherkassk on fire in Feodosia, December 26 2023
  • Russian Navy Pr.205P STENKA Class patrol boat observed sunken at pier in Sevastopol. Reputedly hit by a Ukrainian USV, see possible related attack below.

  • Russian appointed Governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev, reported that Russian forces repelled a surface drone 3km from Sevastopol. The USV was apparently destroyed by helicopter. Possibly related to video released on Jan 1 2024 showing SBU 'Sea Baby' USVs firing rockets in Sevastopol Bay.

  • Russia launches a P-35 (SS-N-3B SEPAL) supersonic anti-ship missile against Ukraine for the first time. Possibly launched from a legacy hardened site near Sevastopol (The EurAsian Times).

  • Ukraine's GUR attacks Russian Navy TARANTUL Class missile corvette Ivanovets with USVs in vicinity of Lake Donuzlav, Crimea. Vessel sunk.
    Russian warships in Sevastopol increasingly using camouflage netting to break up their profile. This is in addition to widespread application of 'deceptive' camouflage.

  • Reported attempted attack by 3 or more Ukrainian "Semi-submersible unmanned boats" (USVs) on a Russian "civilian transport ships" in Southwestern Black Sea.

  • Ukraine's GUR attacks Russian Navy ROPUCHA Class landing ship Caesar Kunikov with USVs on the southern coast of Crimea. Vessel sunk.

    Successful attacks by Ukrainian GUR Group-13 operated USVs on TARANTUL Class missile corvette Ivanovets (left) and ROPUCHA Class landing ship Caesar Kunikov (right).
  • Reports that the commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet (BSF), Admiral Viktor Sokolov, is removed from his post. His deputy, Vice Admiral Sergei Pinchuk, likely takes command. This will be the second change in command of the BSF since the full-scale invasion began.

Ukraine has repeatedly employed explosive-laden USVs to target ships, even in Russian ports hundreds of miles from Ukrainian-controlled waters. Ukraine also likely used them to damage the Kerch Strait Bridge, a vital logistical link between southern Russia and occupied Crimea. Ukraine is now developing an explosive-laden uncrewed undersea vehicle, which can achieve greater stealth than a USV.

Silhouettes of various warships, some with flames, are organized in rows. Each ship is labeled with Russian text, displaying different types of naval vessels, potentially indicating names, classes, or status.